Alan Hargreaves' Blog

The ramblings of a former Australian SaND TSC* Principal Field Technologist

Cringley’s Sun prediction from 2005

Robert X. Cringley has posted his predictions for 2006 along with scoring how he went in 2005. I find it interesting how he spins what he said into something different so he can say he was right.

Robert’s prediction for Sun on 2005 was:

12) There is no evidence that Sun will change its current course, which is inexorably downward. I know Jonathan Schwartz thinks I’m crazy, but so far I am more right than he is, and hear no reason coming from him why that should change.

Note the phrase “inexorably downward”.

Now, in this years predictions where he looks back on last years, he says:

I was wrong when I saw resurgence for Cisco and right when I saw mainly gloom and doom for Sun. Jonathan Schwartz has not yet shown me (or anyone) that he knows how to save that company.

Interesting method of scoring a “I got it right” Robert.

I think one could successfully argue a number of changes in direction for Sun and a number of good things. At the very worst, looking at the stock price you would have to say we “broke even”, which is hardly a course “inexorably downward”.

Robert, I recommend you go and have a read of the survey that The Register recently ran. Apparantly our customers think more of us than you do. One could also argue that this is also a definite improvement on where we were a year ago.

I’d also recommend you have a read of some of the great things that happened last year. Solaris 10, OpenSolaris, UltraSPARC4+, Galaxy (which you did note), The T1 chip and the T2000 box.

I’d hardly call last year a course of “inexorably downward”.

I you want to be completely honest in measuring against the actual wording of your 2005 prediction, you have to score #12 as a miss.

I look forward to being a part of giving you another “oops I got it wrong” in the coming year, although I must say it looks pretty vague.

5) Still no good news for Sun. Those Galaxy servers are very nice, but they aren’t enough to support the company and Eric Schmidt is too smart (I hope) to bail out his old firm.

If the prediction is that Eric Schmidt is not going to buy out Sun, then that’s really a no brainer and I would have expected better from you. Shall we read it as a prediction that we are going to continue “inexorably downward”, or should we read it as we’re not going to head in a positive direction? How do you wish to measure this? If we are go go against the actual wording of the first sentance, would any good news for Sun fail the prediction? Realistically I think you need to clarify that prediction substantially, it currently is too vague to be able to judge yea or nay next year.

I think things are starting to look up. It will be interesting to see what you write about #5 next year.

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Written by Alan

January 23, 2006 at 11:35 pm

Posted in OpenSolaris

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